Antique Stock Broking Identifies Four AMCs for Potential 21% Returns

Antique Stock Broking has initiated coverage on four Indian asset management companies (AMCs), highlighting HDFC AMC, Nippon Life India AMC, UTI AMC, and Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, as promising investment opportunities with potential returns of up to 21%. This recommendation comes as the mutual fund industry in India gears up for significant growth, with expectations of a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 15% for Assets Under Management (AUM) and a 20% CAGR for active equities AUM, according to a report published by Antique on July 9, 2025.

The growth forecasts are driven by anticipated low double-digit nominal GDP growth and earnings growth, alongside increasing Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) flows and the rise of digital-first financial distributors. The firm estimates that the profit projections for the four AMCs from fiscal year 2026 to 2028 will be 5% to 7% higher than consensus estimates.

**HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC)** has received a 'buy' rating with a price target of ₹6,000, indicating a potential upside of over 17% from recent closing prices. According to Antique, HDFC AMC has seen its equity AUM market share recover to nearly 13% as of March 2025, up from 11.5% in December 2021. The company boasts a 60% net margin and a return on equity (RoE) of 33%, aided by an 80% dividend payout, which justifies its premium valuation compared to peers. Antique projects a revenue CAGR of 15% and profit after tax (PAT) CAGR of 16% for HDFC AMC over the specified period.

**Nippon Life India Asset Management (NAM)** is another top pick, with a price target set at ₹950, forecasting a potential upside of 21%. The company has the largest retail investor base in the market, accounting for 38% of unique investors and 13.8% of total folios. NAM's share in SIP inflows has notably doubled from 5% in the fourth quarter of FY 2022 to over 10% in the fourth quarter of FY 2025, driven by strong performance in its key equity schemes. However, risks include market volatility and potential declines in fund performance.

**Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC** is assigned a price target of ₹900, suggesting an 11% upside. Despite a decline in equity AUM market share, the company's recent turnaround in fund performance, particularly following a restructuring led by Mercer in 2022, signals a positive trajectory. Aditya Birla is investing in process consistency and leveraging quantitative tools for disciplined investing, with expected revenue and PAT CAGR of 12% from FY 2025 to 2028. Key risks include rising competition and execution challenges in alternative assets.

**UTI Asset Management Company (UTI AMC)** also garners a 'buy' recommendation with a target price of ₹1,500 per share, reflecting a 12% upside. UTI AMC has positioned itself as a leader in the passive fund space and is expected to continue launching exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds aligned with market demand. Antique forecasts a revenue and PAT CAGR of 12% for UTI AMC through fiscal years 2025-2028, although it acknowledges risks such as fee compression and operational execution.

The projections and recommendations from Antique Stock Broking illustrate a growing confidence in the Indian mutual fund sector, buoyed by favorable economic indicators and evolving investor behavior. As the market adapts to new technologies and distribution methods, these AMCs may well be positioned to capitalize on the robust demand for mutual fund products among Indian investors.