Critical Minerals: The Key Challenge for Humanoid Robotics Growth

The burgeoning field of humanoid robotics is poised to revolutionize various sectors, expected to reach a staggering market size of over $5 trillion by 2050, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley. As these advanced machines become increasingly integrated into daily life, a critical challenge looms: securing the necessary minerals that power their operation.

On June 25, 2025, Rahul Anand, Head of Morgan Stanley's Australia Materials Research team, highlighted that the demand for essential minerals such as rare earths, lithium, and graphite is projected to skyrocket in tandem with the growth of humanoid robots. Each humanoid robot requires approximately one kilogram of rare earth elements, two kilograms of lithium, 6.5 kilograms of copper, 1.5 kilograms of nickel, three kilograms of graphite, and about 200 grams of cobalt.

This burgeoning demand for critical minerals raises concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions. Currently, China dominates the global supply of these minerals, controlling 88% of rare earth supplies, 93% of graphite, and 75% of refined lithium. Following recent tariff announcements by the United States, China has imposed export controls on several heavy rare earth elements and permanent magnets, exacerbating fears of supply shortages in the Western world.

The supply chain issues are compounded by lengthy processes involved in bringing new mining projects online. As noted by Anand, it takes an average of 18 years to develop a new mine, a significant increase from previous decades due to stringent regulatory frameworks and prolonged exploration periods. This reality raises alarms about the projected deficits in critical minerals; by 2040, the market for neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr), essential for permanent magnets, is expected to face a 26% shortfall, while lithium could see an alarming 80% deficit.

The ramifications of these shortages extend beyond the robotics industry, affecting various sectors reliant on advanced technologies, including electric vehicles and renewable energy solutions. Dr. Sarah Johnson, a Professor of Materials Science at MIT, asserts, "The urgency to diversify our supply chains cannot be overstated; failure to address this will hinder technological advancements globally."

In response to these challenges, Morgan Stanley's research team has identified 34 global stocks that could benefit from the increasing demand for rare earths, lithium, and related minerals. However, experts caution that quick solutions are not feasible. According to Mark Thompson, CEO of GreenTech Minerals, "Investing in alternative sources and technologies to recycle these critical minerals is imperative for long-term sustainability."

The geopolitical landscape further complicates the situation. The ongoing discussions between the U.S. and China regarding trade agreements have yet to yield definitive solutions, particularly concerning rare earths used in military applications. Anand emphasizes that a comprehensive deal remains essential for stabilizing the critical minerals market.

Looking ahead, the intersection of technology and resource management will be pivotal in shaping the future of humanoid robotics and related industries. As the world races to embrace these innovations, the call for strategic investments and diversified sourcing of critical minerals has never been more critical. The outcomes of these decisions will not only influence the robotics sector but also the broader economic landscape as nations vie for technological leadership in an increasingly resource-constrained world.

In summary, the development of humanoid robots presents immense opportunities tempered by significant challenges related to critical mineral supply. Addressing these concerns proactively will be essential for ensuring the sustainable growth of this transformative technology.