ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Reveals Inflation Trends for 2025-2027

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently published the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2025, detailing expectations regarding inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment rates across the euro area. Conducted from July 1-3, 2025, this survey gathered insights from 53 respondents, primarily experts affiliated with major financial and non-financial institutions in Europe.
According to the ECB’s press release dated July 25, 2025, respondents revised down their expectations for headline inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Specifically, the forecast for 2025 was adjusted to 2.0%, down from 2.2% in the previous survey, while estimates for 2026 were revised from 2.0% to 1.8%. However, expectations for 2027 remained unchanged at 2.0%.
The ECB's mandate focuses on maintaining price stability in the euro area, which directly impacts the purchasing power of the euro. Dr. Maria Schmidt, an economist at the University of Frankfurt, stated, "The gradual decline in inflation expectations reflects a more cautious outlook on economic recovery, exacerbated by recent geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions."
In addition to inflation, the survey also revealed revisions in real GDP growth expectations. Forecasts for 2025 were increased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, while projections for 2026 were slightly reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%. Notably, growth expectations for 2027 and the longer term remained stable at 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
William Lelieveldt, an ECB spokesperson, noted, "The revisions in GDP growth are indicative of the resilience of the euro area economy despite external pressures. The anticipated growth reflects a recovering labor market and robust consumer spending."
Unemployment rate expectations were reported to be broadly unchanged, with forecasts averaging 6.3% for 2025 and 2026 before declining to 6.2% in 2027. This stability in unemployment rates suggests a gradual improvement in labor market conditions, as pointed out by Dr. Elena Martinez, a labor economist at the European Institute. She remarked, "The stability of unemployment expectations suggests that the labor market is adjusting to post-pandemic realities, with potential structural changes in job sectors."
The survey results are particularly significant as they provide insights into the expectations of professional forecasters amid changing economic conditions. The ECB is expected to publish its next staff macroeconomic projections on September 11, 2025, which will further illuminate the economic outlook for the euro area.
The ECB’s ongoing commitment to transparent communication and data dissemination plays a crucial role in shaping market expectations and guiding economic policy decisions. The findings from the SPF will assist in informing decisions related to monetary policy, which is critical for maintaining stability within the eurozone.
In summary, the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the euro area, with inflation expectations easing slightly, GDP growth remaining resilient, and unemployment rates stabilizing. As the eurozone navigates a complex economic landscape, these forecasts will be pivotal in guiding future monetary policy and economic strategies.
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