Geopolitical Shifts Drive $182.6 Billion Demand for Sovereign EO Satellites

In a significant shift in the global market for Earth Observation (EO) satellites, a recent report from Novaspace indicates that the demand for sovereign satellite systems is projected to fuel a market surge worth $182.6 billion by 2034. The report, titled "Earth Observation Satellite Systems, 18th Edition," was released on July 2, 2025, and highlights the increasing prioritization of national defense capabilities as geopolitical tensions reshape global space strategies.

According to Federico Banfi, project manager at Novaspace, “A new generation of defense suppliers is emerging as countries look to promote the development of national EO ecosystems, with momentum expected to increase in the coming years.” This statement underscores the urgency with which nations are adapting their space strategies in response to rising geopolitical instability.

The report forecasts that approximately 5,770 EO satellites are set to launch in the next decade, with a pronounced shift toward defense-grade and sovereign capabilities. This trend reflects a broader move away from reliance on commercial satellite data, as U.S. agencies increasingly favor information gathered from internal, defense-operated assets. The potential for enhanced security and data integrity are driving this strategic pivot.

Historically, the EO satellite market has been characterized by a predominance of commercial deployments. However, recent budget cuts in the procurement of commercial satellite data have accelerated the focus on sovereign capabilities. For instance, the U.S. Department of Defense's budgetary decisions now emphasize investing in domestic EO assets, thereby enhancing surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities critical for national security.

The emergence of Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) and Very High Resolution (VVHR) technologies marks a new era in satellite deployment. As noted in the report, the Chinese Chutian constellation deployed its first prototype in 2024, and plans for larger deployments are underway. This situation is mirrored in the U.S., where commercial entities are also initiating launches of high-resolution, low-latency satellites.

One of the transformative aspects of this market evolution is the miniaturization of satellite technology. The shift from heavier satellites to smaller, sub-50 kg models has introduced enhanced capabilities that meet the growing demands of defense and mission requirements, while also keeping launch costs manageable. According to market analysis, satellites weighing under 50 kg, which previously constituted 82% of commercial launches, are forecasted to decrease to below 50%. This transition indicates a movement toward more complex and diversified satellite missions.

Novaspace’s comprehensive report provides a sweeping examination of the EO satellite market dynamics, emphasizing the changing landscape of supply and demand. It evaluates historical and projected data regarding EO satellites built and launched over the past decade and the upcoming years, detailing operators, manufacturers, and specific mission characteristics.

The implications of this market surge extend beyond mere financial considerations. As nations invest in sovereign EO capabilities, they are not only enhancing their strategic defense postures but also redefining their roles in the international space community. The geopolitical landscape will likely experience a ripple effect, as countries that establish robust EO capabilities could gain significant leverage in diplomatic and military arenas.

In conclusion, the anticipated growth of the EO satellite market underscores a critical transformation in how nations perceive and utilize space capabilities. As the demand for sovereign satellite systems rises, future developments will likely focus on the integration of advanced technologies, agile procurement processes, and the necessity for countries to maintain secure and independent access to vital EO data. This ongoing evolution will shape not only the satellite industry but also broader geopolitical relations as nations seek to assert their presence and capabilities in space.

About Novaspace: Novaspace is a prominent player in space consulting and market intelligence, formed through the merger of Euroconsult and SpaceTec Partners. For over 40 years, Novaspace has provided expertise to public and private entities, guiding strategic decision-making and offering comprehensive data-driven insights. With a client base of 1,200 across more than 60 countries, Novaspace maintains a strong international presence, with offices in major cities including Brussels, London, Montreal, and Washington D.C.