Launch of Australian Gas and LNG Tracker: Key Insights and Implications

On June 17, 2025, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) unveiled its Australian Gas and LNG Tracker, an innovative interactive data tool designed to provide critical insights into liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows in and out of Australia. This tracker serves as a comprehensive resource for stakeholders, policymakers, and industry analysts focused on the dynamics of Australia's LNG sector. The launch comes at a time when the nation is grappling with fluctuating gas prices and changing export markets, raising questions about the sustainability and future direction of its gas industry.

The Australian Gas and LNG Tracker allows users to visualize the country's LNG infrastructure, demand, capacity, and export flows. It incorporates data from authoritative sources such as Kpler and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), alongside IEEFA's own thorough analysis. Updates to the tracker are scheduled every six months, ensuring that users have access to the latest information regarding Australia's LNG sector.

As highlighted in the tracker, the majority of gas produced in Australia is directed towards the LNG export sector, which has been experiencing significant shifts in market dynamics. In 2024, Australia's largest LNG export markets were China (33%), Japan (32%), South Korea (15%), and Taiwan (10%), with all other countries making up approximately 9% of exports. Joshua Runciman, Lead Analyst for Australian Gas at IEEFA, noted that while Japan has historically been the largest importer of Australian LNG, it has recently been surpassed by China due to dramatic import growth over the past decade. In fact, Australia's LNG exports to China increased by 8% in 2024, following a 10% increase in the previous year, while exports to Japan decreased by 6% and 10% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

The tracker also reveals that Australia's LNG export facilities have maintained high utilization rates, averaging above 90% between 2021 and 2024. This high utilization reflects strong spot export volumes that supplement long-term contracts. However, the increasing share of LNG exported to spot markets—now comprising 25% of total exports—raises concerns about the imbalance between exports and domestic gas supply. Runciman emphasized that without new LNG contracts, Australian exporters may face volatile spot prices or reduced utilization of their facilities, potentially undermining the financial returns of LNG projects.

Furthermore, the report indicates that Australia’s LNG contract volumes are expected to stabilize until 2030, after which they may decline significantly by 2040. The expiration of these contracts coincides with anticipated supply shortages within the country, suggesting that domestic gas supply could increase if exporters reduce LNG plant utilization. Several new LNG sale and purchase agreements are set to commence in 2026, including contracts to support the Darwin LNG facility through Santos's Barossa gas field development.

The implications of these trends are profound for Australia’s energy landscape. As domestic gas production in key import markets like China continues to rise, and as Japan's demand for LNG wanes, Australia's reliance on a few major markets could pose risks to its LNG industry’s stability. Additionally, the ongoing fluctuations in international LNG pricing are likely to affect industrial gas demand domestically, particularly in Eastern Australia, where exposure to these prices has already led to reduced demand.

The launch of the Australian Gas and LNG Tracker is a strategic move by IEEFA to provide a detailed and graphic illustration of the current and future outlook of Australia’s LNG sector. As the energy landscape evolves, this tool aims to be a vital source of information and insights for navigating the complexities of LNG in Australia. For those interested in exploring the tracker, it is available on IEEFA's official website.

Amy Leiper, the contact person for media inquiries at IEEFA, stated, "We expect the Australian Gas and LNG Tracker to become an essential resource for understanding the complexities of our LNG market, especially as we brace for future uncertainties in both local and international contexts.”