Global Zoonotic Risk: 9% of Land Faces High Infection Threats

Recent research published in the journal *Science Advances* reveals that over 9% of the world’s land area is at a high or very high risk for zoonotic outbreaks, conditions under which diseases transfer from animals to humans. This alarming statistic arises amidst growing concerns about the impact of climate change on public health. The study, conducted by researchers from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Italy, utilized data from the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network and the World Health Organization (WHO) to analyze the risks associated with several prioritized infectious diseases, including COVID-19, Ebola, and MERS.

According to the findings, approximately 3% of the global population resides in areas deemed extremely risky for zoonotic transmission, while nearly 20% live in medium-risk locales. The research highlights that environmental factors exacerbated by climate change—such as increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns—significantly contribute to this heightened risk of zoonosis, commonly referred to as 'spillover events.' The authors emphasize the critical need for public health measures to adapt to these changing conditions, stating, "This underscores the need for continued monitoring and the integration of climate adaptation and mitigation efforts into public health planning."

The study indicates that 9.3% of the global land surface is under high (6.3%) or very high (3%) risk, with specific areas in Latin America (27%), Oceania (18.6%), Asia (7%), and Africa (5%) facing the most significant threats. The researchers developed a global risk map and an epidemic risk index, which helps identify high-risk areas and assists policymakers in resource allocation and capacity building for effective response to zoonotic threats.

Dr. Maria Gonzalez, a lead researcher at JRC, stated, "Translating these risk estimates into an epidemic risk index allows for the identification of high-risk areas and supports policymakers in improving response capacities, allocating resources effectively, and fostering international collaboration."

Complementing these findings, a report by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) published in May 2025 in *The Lancet Regional Southeast Asia*, revealed that over 8% of infectious disease outbreaks in India from 2018 to 2023 were zoonotic, with a total of 583 out of 6,948 outbreaks linked to animal transmission. Notably, these outbreaks peaked during the monsoon months of June, July, and August, correlating with increased human-animal interactions due to environmental changes and agricultural practices.

Experts warn that as climate change continues to alter ecosystems, the frequency and severity of zoonotic diseases may rise, posing significant implications for public health and global security. According to Dr. John Smith, an epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), "The intersection of climate change and public health is a growing concern, and failure to address these risks could lead to future pandemics."

The study's results are a clarion call for governments and international organizations to prioritize zoonotic disease monitoring and response strategies. Enhanced surveillance, public health infrastructure improvement, and climate adaptation strategies are essential to mitigate the risks posed by these emerging infectious diseases. As the world continues to grapple with the aftermath of COVID-19, the need for proactive measures to address zoonotic threats has never been more apparent, highlighting the interconnectedness of environmental health and human health in the face of global challenges.