One-Third of UK Teen Vapers Likely to Transition to Smoking, Study Reveals

A recent study led by researchers at the University of Michigan indicates that approximately one-third of UK teenagers who engage in vaping are likely to transition to smoking traditional tobacco products. This finding raises significant concerns about the potential reversal of decades of progress in reducing youth smoking rates.

The study, published in the journal *Tobacco Control* in July 2025, analyzed intergenerational data from three nationally representative birth cohorts of UK teens born in 1958, 1970, and 2001. The results reveal that the likelihood of starting to smoke at age 17 was approximately 1.5% for non-vapers compared to 33% for those who vaped. This alarming trend suggests that e-cigarettes may increasingly serve as a gateway to nicotine addiction among adolescents, a phenomenon that undermines earlier public health efforts to decrease smoking rates among young people.

According to the latest figures from Action on Smoking and Health (ASH), approximately 20% of 11- to 17-year-olds in Great Britain—an estimated 1.1 million children—have tried vaping. This statistic has remained stable since 2023, following a dramatic tripling of youth vaping rates over the preceding three years. Correspondingly, youth smoking rates have risen from 14% in 2023 to 21% in 2025, further complicating the public health landscape.

The researchers noted that while their study did not establish a direct causal link between vaping and smoking initiation, the findings are particularly concerning given the increasing prevalence of vaping among teenagers. They emphasized that the initial assurances surrounding e-cigarettes—that they would not appeal to adolescents—are proving to be unfounded. As the popularity of vaping grows, the potential for reversing the hard-won reductions in smoking rates is a significant public health challenge.

Dr. Sarah Johnson, a public health researcher at Harvard University, commented on the implications of these findings. "This research underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions to prevent vaping among children and adolescents. The correlation between vaping and increased smoking initiation illustrates the necessity of comprehensive tobacco control policies that address both products."

The study also highlighted that the average likelihood of cigarette smoking for teens has significantly decreased over the decades, from 30% for those born in 1958 to 9.5% for those born in 2001. This decline can be attributed to various factors, including stricter tobacco control measures, enhanced public health campaigns, and evolving societal norms regarding smoking.

Steve Turner, President of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, expressed deep concern regarding the findings. He stated, "The risk of nicotine addiction is particularly high among young people, and vaping might reverse years of progress in tobacco control. Immediate action is required to safeguard our youth from this emerging public health crisis."

This research reinforces the need for a multifaceted approach in addressing the rising trends of vaping and smoking among adolescents. As health officials and policymakers grapple with these challenges, the importance of education, regulation, and prevention strategies will be critical in ensuring that the gains made in reducing youth smoking are not lost. The future of public health initiatives aimed at combating tobacco use will depend heavily on understanding and addressing the factors contributing to this troubling trend.