Projected 45% Increase in Sleep Apnea Risk Linked to Climate Change

As global temperatures continue to rise, a recent study published in *Nature Communications* indicates that the prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) could increase by nearly 50% by the end of the century. This alarming projection highlights the significant implications for public health and economic productivity, as more individuals may experience this serious sleep disorder. The research, led by sleep scientist Dr. Bastien Lechat from Flinders University in Australia, utilized data collected from an innovative under-mattress sleep sensor that monitored the sleep patterns of 116,620 individuals across 29 countries between January 2020 and September 2023.

Obstructive sleep apnea is characterized by repeated interruptions in breathing during sleep, which can lead to severe health complications, including cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorders, and decreased cognitive function. Dr. Lechat emphasized, "This study helps us to understand how environmental factors like climate might affect health by investigating whether ambient temperatures influence the severity of OSA." The findings revealed that higher temperatures were associated with a 45% increased likelihood of individuals experiencing OSA during sleep.

The research team matched the sleep data with detailed temperature records, noting that 2023 marked the highest mean temperature in over two millennia, reaching 2.07 °C above pre-industrial levels. The impact of this temperature increase is staggering: an estimated loss of approximately 800,000 healthy life years across the studied regions, comparable to the burdens posed by other significant health conditions such as bipolar disorder and chronic kidney disease.

Furthermore, the economic implications cannot be understated. The estimated cost of lost workplace productivity due to OSA exacerbated by climate change is around $98 billion USD, corresponding to an estimated 105 million lost workdays. Such figures suggest that the burden of OSA on society could double if current climate trends continue. The research indicates variations in OSA prevalence across different regions, with European countries experiencing higher rates than those in Australia or the United States. This disparity may be attributed to varying levels of air conditioning and socioeconomic factors that influence sleep environments.

Dr. Lechat cautioned that the findings might underestimate the true health and economic costs of climate-related OSA, as the dataset primarily represents individuals in higher socioeconomic brackets who have better access to sleep technologies and climate control. The study also aligns with modeling based on climate change policies indicating that global temperatures could rise by 2.1 to 3.4 °C by the year 2100 unless significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are achieved.

In conclusion, the study underscores a critical intersection between climate change and public health, revealing that environmental conditions can significantly influence health outcomes such as sleep-disordered breathing. As policymakers and scientists continue to grapple with the impacts of climate change, it is imperative to consider the broader implications for public health, productivity, and the economy. Future projections of OSA prevalence due to escalating temperatures necessitate urgent action to mitigate climate change and protect public health.