Projected Cancer Burden in Kerala to Surge by 2030, Experts Warn

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research (NCDIR) has projected a significant rise in cancer cases in Kerala by the year 2030, estimating that approximately 45,813 women and 43,930 men will be diagnosed annually. This alarming forecast was revealed during the Kerala Cancer Conclave, hosted by the Association of Medical and Pediatric Oncologists of Kerala (AMPOK), drawing attention to the state's already high cancer incidence rates, which are more than double the national average.

In 2024, Kerala recorded 45,008 new cases of cancer among women and 43,110 among men. Although these figures indicate a modest increase, experts express deep concern over the anticipated growth. Dr. Prashant Mathur, Director of ICMR-NCDIR, emphasized the urgency of implementing stronger preventive measures. "The incidence of cancer in Kerala is above the national average for both men and women, highlighting the urgent need for stronger preventive measures," Dr. Mathur stated during the conclave.

Despite the rising incidence, Kerala boasts relatively favorable cancer survival rates compared to other regions. Dr. Suresh H. Advani, a leading oncologist often referred to as the father of cancer treatment in India, pointed out a troubling increase in breast and thyroid cancers among women. He indicated that thyroid cancer has become so prevalent that smaller cities in Kerala report multiple surgeries each week.

Dr. Narayanankutty Warrier, Medical Director of the MVR Cancer Centre and Research Institute, reported a staggering 300% rise in breast cancer cases over the past 25 years. He attributed this increase to lifestyle-related diseases, exacerbated by the high prevalence of diabetes in the population. According to Dr. Aleyamma Mathew, Professor and Head of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the Regional Cancer Centre, breast cancer currently accounts for 30% of all cancers in women in Kerala. She noted that while rates of breast and colorectal cancers are on the rise, cervical cancer incidences have declined.

Dr. V. Ramankutty, Research Director of the Amala Cancer Research Centre, echoed concerns about the state's cancer burden, noting that while Kerala's rates are lower than those in countries like the USA, the state's cardiovascular disease mortality exceeds that of cancer. He criticized the public's misconceptions surrounding cancer, particularly the erroneous belief attributing the disease to 'toxins in vegetables' while overlooking significant risk factors such as alcohol consumption and sedentary lifestyles. Dr. Ramankutty advocated for a comprehensive early detection program integrated into primary care.

At the conclave's inauguration, Speaker AN Shamseer underlined the necessity of making cancer treatment more affordable and establishing standardized treatment protocols across the state. Dr. M.R. Rajagopal, Founder of Pallium India, stressed the importance of balancing quality of life with treatment efficacy. Furthermore, Dr. C.S. Pramesh, Director of Tata Memorial Hospital, lamented that the focus of cancer care has shifted solely to treatment, neglecting preventive measures. "We need a holistic approach to reduce overall mortality," he asserted, underscoring the importance of value-based care.

Dr. Satheesan Balasubramanian, Director of the Malabar Cancer Centre, indicated that many cancer cases in Kerala are diagnosed at advanced stages, further complicating treatment outcomes.

According to ICMR-NCDIR data, the leading cancer sites in Kerala are as follows: - Men: Lung (14%), Oral Cavity (10%), Colorectum (10%), Prostate (9%), Liver (8%), Other (49%) - Women: Breast (34%), Thyroid (11%), Colorectum (9%), Corpus Uteri (6%), Ovary (4%), Other (36%)

In 2024, the cancer rate per 100,000 individuals in Kerala was 269 for men and 260 for women, in stark contrast to the national averages of 107 for men and 113 for women. The implications of these rising cancer rates are profound, necessitating immediate action from health authorities and policymakers to address this growing public health crisis.