Rising HIV Cases in Africa Linked to Global Funding Cuts: Expert Insights

In a concerning development, recent research indicates that global funding cuts—especially those initiated by the previous U.S. administration—are contributing to a rise in HIV cases across Africa. This alarming trend will be the focus of discussions at the upcoming International AIDS Society (IAS) conference, scheduled for July 13-17, 2025, in Kigali, Rwanda. This conference aims to address the financial and political challenges currently impacting the HIV response in low- and middle-income countries.

According to a study led by Dr. Beatriz Grinsztejn, President of the IAS and Director of the Evandro Chagas Clinical Research Institute in Brazil, the implications of funding reductions are profound. "On one hand, we’re witnessing extraordinary scientific breakthroughs that could transform prevention and treatment and even bring us closer to a cure. On the other hand, these very advances are under threat from massive funding cuts that risk stalling clinical trials, slowing our progress, and jeopardizing the progress we’ve fought so hard to achieve," Dr. Grinsztejn stated during a preliminary briefing on the research findings.

The research highlights specific funding cuts, particularly to the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which had provided essential support to nearly 700,000 individuals in 28 sub-Saharan African nations by late 2024. Following a pause in funding announced in early 2025, projections indicate an increase of approximately 6,671 new HIV infections over the next year and a staggering 3,617 additional infections over the subsequent five years, as detailed in a report by the GlobalData Strategic Intelligence Unit published on June 15, 2025.

Furthermore, the impact of these funding cuts is already visible in cities like Johannesburg, where a study conducted by Khensani Chauke from the Gauteng Provincial Department of Health revealed a concerning 8.5% decline in HIV testing from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. The same study reported a 31% drop in HIV diagnoses and a 30% decrease in the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). These statistics underscore the urgency of addressing the funding crisis in HIV prevention and treatment efforts.

In Mozambique, which ranks third globally in its number of people living with HIV, the funding freeze has led to a 25% reduction in ART initiation—from over 22,000 patients in February 2024 to just over 17,000 in February 2025. This data was presented by Anna Grimsrud, senior technical adviser for the International AIDS Society, highlighting the critical need for continued support in these vulnerable populations. The findings suggest that if the funding interruptions continue, Mozambique could face a 15% increase in HIV infections and a 10% rise in HIV-related deaths by 2030.

The IAS 2025 conference is set to call for immediate actions to combat the increase in HIV cases in low- and middle-income countries. Zackie Achmat, founder of the Treatment Action Campaign, emphasized the necessity of debt restructuring for African nations to prioritize health over financial obligations to creditors. "You can’t end the AIDS pandemic while African nations must choose between paying creditors and saving lives," Achmat articulated during a recent press conference.

This situation presents a formidable challenge to global health, exacerbated by financial constraints that threaten years of progress in combating HIV/AIDS. As the IAS conference approaches, the international community is urged to reconsider funding strategies to ensure the ongoing fight against this epidemic remains a priority. The findings presented at the conference will undoubtedly shape discussions around health policy and funding, making it imperative for stakeholders to collaborate effectively to avert a public health crisis.

In conclusion, the confluence of reduced funding and rising HIV incidence in Africa underscores an urgent need for strategic action. Policymakers, health organizations, and international bodies must work together to safeguard the progress made in HIV prevention and treatment, ensuring that vulnerable populations receive the support they need to combat this life-threatening virus.