Urban Development and Socioeconomic Factors Drive Dengue Hotspots in Medellín

A recent study led by researchers from the University of Eastern Finland in collaboration with international experts has identified a significant correlation between urban development, socioeconomic status, and the prevalence of dengue outbreaks in Medellín, Colombia. The findings, published on July 18, 2025, in The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, underscore the necessity for targeted public health strategies to combat dengue in urban environments characterized by socioeconomic disparity.

The study analyzed over 40,000 georeferenced dengue cases reported between 2010 and 2020, revealing that only 26% of Medellín's neighborhoods accounted for half of the infections. These so-called "hotspot" areas predominantly emerged in low- and middle-income communities with dense built-up land cover. In stark contrast, neighborhoods with higher socioeconomic status and more green spaces exhibited significantly fewer outbreaks. Lead author Juliana Pérez-Pérez, a Doctoral Researcher at the University of Eastern Finland, noted, "What's striking is that many of these hotspots are not isolated incidents. Some neighborhoods were affected year after year—up to seven years in some cases."

Using spatial statistics across 249 barrios in Medellín, researchers identified both single-year and recurrent dengue hotspots. The patterns varied depending on whether the year was classified as epidemic, non-epidemic, or severe epidemic, yet certain areas consistently emerged as high-risk zones.

Traditional dengue control programs tend to apply uniform measures across urban areas; however, this study advocates for a more strategic approach. By integrating epidemiological surveillance with land use insights and urban planning, public health interventions can become more effective and targeted. Pérez-Pérez emphasized that the study's implications extend beyond Medellín, stating, "Dengue is often seen as a challenge for the Global South, but the conditions that favor its spread—urbanization, social inequality, and a warming climate—are increasingly present elsewhere. This research highlights how land use and socioeconomic status shape disease risk, which can inform local responses and prepare other regions, including parts of Europe, for what may soon become a growing public health challenge."

The research promotes a multidisciplinary approach, merging public health, ecology, urban geography, and spatial analysis to better understand and address the spread of mosquito-borne diseases in urban settings. It emphasizes that recognizing the spatial and social dynamics of dengue outbreaks is crucial in crafting effective public health strategies.

In summary, the study sheds light on the intricate relationship between urban planning and public health, demonstrating that strategic land-use planning could mitigate the risks associated with dengue outbreaks in Medellín and similar urban environments globally. The need for local, data-driven responses is paramount to combat the rising threat posed by vector-borne diseases in densely populated areas.