Belgian Scientists Analyze Ancient Antarctic Ice to Predict Climate Change

In a refrigerated facility at Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), a team of Belgian scientists is meticulously analyzing Antarctic ice cores that date back tens of thousands of years. Led by Harry Zekollari, a glaciologist, the research aims to extract historical climate data to better understand the dynamics of Earth’s changing climate. This initiative is part of a wider effort to utilize past climate conditions as a framework for predicting future climate scenarios.

The ice cores contain trapped air bubbles that offer invaluable insights into the atmospheric composition of past eras. As Zekollari stated, "We want to know a lot about the climates of the past because we can use it as an analogy for what can happen in the future." The team’s recent expedition to Antarctica, which took place in November, was aimed at retrieving some of the world's oldest ice samples without incurring exorbitant costs.

Historically, accessing ice that dates back millions of years is challenging, given its location beneath kilometers of newer ice and snow. A recent European Union (EU)-funded project managed to retrieve samples estimated to be 1.2 million years old, costing approximately €11 million (around $12.8 million). To optimize the expedition’s budget, the researchers employed satellite data and geological indicators to pinpoint locations where ancient ice might be accessible.

Maaike Izeboud, a remote sensing specialist at VUB, explained the dynamics of ice movement: "Ice flows towards the coast slowly, and when it encounters obstacles, lower layers can be pushed closer to the surface." This phenomenon is particularly relevant in areas known as "blue ice" zones, which comprise only about one percent of Antarctica's surface but can expose ancient ice layers.

The team focused on a blue ice region approximately 2,300 meters (7,500 feet) above sea level, located about 60 kilometers (37 miles) from Belgium’s Princess Elisabeth Antarctica Research Station. Prior meteorite discoveries in this area suggested the likelihood of encountering ancient ice. After establishing a temporary research camp, the team successfully extracted 15 ice cores, totaling about 60 meters in length. These samples were shipped to Belgium in late June, where they are now undergoing further analysis.

Zekollari expressed optimism about the findings, indicating that some samples taken from shallow depths of around 10 meters might be confirmed as approximately 100,000 years old. If this hypothesis holds true, the team plans to drill deeper for potentially even older ice. Zekollari likened their research endeavor to a treasure hunt, stating, "It’s like a treasure hunt... We’re trying to cross the good spot on the map." The ultimate goal is to uncover ice that could be between three to five million years old, which would significantly enhance climatologists’ understanding of historical climate conditions.

Etienne Legrain, a paleo-climatologist at Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), highlighted the urgency of their research, stating that the climate models currently used to predict future warming scenarios are based on limited historical data. He noted, "By the end of the century, temperatures could reach levels similar to those experienced between 2.6 and 3.3 million years ago, yet we lack comprehensive data on CO2 concentrations from that period." This gap in knowledge underscores the importance of the ice cores being studied, as they may contain critical data necessary for understanding the relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature fluctuations in a warmer climate.

The implications of this research extend beyond academic interest; they are pivotal in informing climate action and policy decisions. As the planet faces unprecedented warming, understanding past climate behavior is crucial for forecasting future trends and implementing effective mitigation strategies. The research team at VUB and ULB is committed to unveiling the secrets of ancient ice, contributing vital insights that could shape our response to climate change in the coming decades.