CBO Reports Trump’s Bill to Increase U.S. Debt by $3.4 Trillion

In a recent analysis, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revealed that President Donald Trump’s recently enacted legislation, often referred to as the “big beautiful bill,” is projected to add an unprecedented $3.4 trillion to the United States national debt over the next decade. This legislation, signed into law on July 4, 2025, has sparked significant political debate regarding its long-term economic implications and its impact on health insurance coverage for millions of Americans.

According to the CBO's report published on July 20, 2025, the bill is expected to increase the number of uninsured individuals in the U.S. by approximately 10 million by 2034. The analysis highlights that while the bill extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and introduces tax deductions for tips and overtime pay over the next four years, it simultaneously imposes cuts to essential programs such as Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

The legislative passage, which occurred along strict party lines with a Senate vote of 51-50 and a House vote of 218-214, came after a series of last-minute alterations designed to secure the necessary votes. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) defended the bill, asserting that it is aimed at benefiting middle- and lower-class earners. He emphasized, “This is a bill that was written for hardworking Americans, and they will feel the effects in the economy.”

Conversely, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) criticized the legislation, describing it as a betrayal of American families. He noted that the anticipated increase in uninsured individuals will exacerbate the challenges faced by many constituents, particularly in light of the expiration of certain Affordable Care Act (ACA) funding.

The CBO analysis further suggests that the net spending cuts of approximately $1.1 trillion will be insufficient to counterbalance the projected $4.5 trillion decline in revenue associated with the bill. This raises questions about the sustainability of the fiscal policies underpinning the legislation and the potential long-term consequences for the U.S. economy.

Historically, similar fiscal reforms have prompted significant public backlash, especially when perceived as favoring the affluent at the expense of lower-income populations. Recent polls indicate that the public remains skeptical regarding the bill’s benefits, reinforcing the notion that the upcoming midterm elections may serve as a critical referendum on the legislation.

In light of these developments, experts in economic policy are divided. Dr. Sarah Johnson, a Professor of Economics at Harvard University, stated, “While the bill may provide temporary tax relief to some, the long-term implications for national debt and health insurance coverage could outweigh these benefits, leading to greater economic instability.” Conversely, Dr. Mark Thompson, a fiscal policy analyst at the Brookings Institution, argued that the immediate economic stimulation provided by tax cuts could foster growth, stating, “It is essential to analyze the potential for increased economic activity that could arise from this legislation.”

As the political landscape evolves, the implications of Trump’s “big beautiful bill” on the national economy, social welfare programs, and the health insurance landscape will likely remain focal points of contention. The future of this legislation will not only shape fiscal policy but also play a crucial role in determining the political fortunes of the Republican Party as they approach the 2026 midterm elections.