Southwest Monsoon and ITCZ Forecast Rainfall Across the Philippines

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that the Southwest Monsoon, locally known as Habagat, is expected to bring cloudy skies and scattered rain showers to the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon on Thursday, June 26, 2025. Concurrently, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is affecting parts of Mindanao, leading to similar weather conditions in those regions.

According to PAGASA's latest advisory, the tropical cyclone currently positioned outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is approximately 1,045 kilometers west of extreme Northern Luzon. This system is generating maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour and gusts reaching up to 55 kilometers per hour, moving westward at a speed of 10 kilometers per hour. This cyclone’s influence is contributing to the overall weather disturbance across the archipelago.

The southwest monsoon is projected to significantly impact the Kalayaan Islands, which will experience cloudy skies interspersed with rain showers and thunderstorms. PAGASA cautioned that the region may face flash floods or landslides due to the anticipated moderate to heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, areas in Mindanao, including Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao Occidental, will also see cloudy conditions with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms attributed to the ITCZ. Similar risks for flash floods and landslides have been noted here as well.

In addition to these regions, provinces including Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and parts of Palawan will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms due to the southwest monsoon. Rain intensity may lead to severe thunderstorms, raising the potential for flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will generally experience partly cloudy to cloudy weather with the possibility of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. PAGASA has indicated that during severe thunderstorms, these areas may also be at risk for flash floods and landslides due to localized weather disturbances.

The wind speed forecast suggests light to moderate winds for Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, and the western section of Southern Luzon, predominantly moving from the southwest to southeast. Coastal waters in these areas are expected to be slight to moderate. For the remaining regions of the country, light to moderate winds will prevail, moving from the southwest to west, with coastal waters likewise being slight to moderate.

As the nation prepares for these weather changes, citizens are urged to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions against potential flooding and landslides. The agency will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary.

The sunrise is expected at 5:29 a.m. and sunset at 6:29 p.m. on June 26, 2025, which may also influence local weather patterns throughout the day.