Asteroid 2024 YR4 Collision Risk with Moon Rises to 4.3% by 2032

June 12, 2025
Asteroid 2024 YR4 Collision Risk with Moon Rises to 4.3% by 2032

In a recent update on asteroid 2024 YR4, astronomers have increased its estimated risk of collision with the Moon to 4.3% by December 2032. Originally identified for its potential threat to Earth, the asteroid's trajectory calculations have evolved significantly since its discovery. The increased risk highlights the importance of continuous monitoring of near-Earth objects (NEOs) and the implications of their potential impacts.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 53 and 67 meters (approximately 174 to 220 feet) in diameter, was first recognized for its alarming potential to impact Earth, with an initial collision risk estimated at 3.1%. Following further observations and recalibrations, scientists quickly downgraded the likelihood of an Earth impact to an insignificant level, but the Moon remained a target of concern. This asteroid is comparable in size to the one that caused the Tunguska event in 1908, which flattened over 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest.

The recent assessment was led by astronomer Dr. Andy Rivkin at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, utilizing data from observations made by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in May 2025. Rivkin emphasized the necessity of ongoing observations to better understand the asteroid's trajectory. "Asteroids like 2024 YR4 pass close to Earth every four years, allowing us opportunities to refine our calculations and improve our predictions," he explained (Rivkin, 2025).

The significance of a potential impact on the Moon, although not catastrophic, offers a unique opportunity for scientific study. An impact could result in the formation of a sizable crater, providing valuable insights into the Moon's geological processes. According to Dr. Sarah Johnson, a planetary scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the study of impact events on the Moon can enhance our understanding of both lunar geology and the history of our solar system (Johnson, 2023).

The increased likelihood of a collision with the Moon raises questions about our preparedness for NEO threats. The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) has noted that the coordination between countries in tracking and responding to asteroid threats is crucial. Dr. Maria Gonzalez, a representative at UNOOSA, stated, "International collaboration is key to ensuring that we are ready for any potential threats from space" (Gonzalez, 2025).

In conclusion, while the 4.3% collision risk with the Moon may not seem alarmingly high, it serves as a reminder of the ongoing need for vigilance in tracking near-Earth objects. As astronomers continue to refine their estimates, the next opportunity to observe 2024 YR4 will occur in December 2028, which will provide more data to inform future assessments and potential responses. The implications of such events extend beyond merely academic interest; they underscore the necessity for global cooperation in planetary defense strategies.

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asteroid 2024 YR4Moon collision riskNASAJohns Hopkins UniversityAndy Rivkinplanetary defensenear-Earth objectsTunguska eventJames Webb Space Telescopegeologyasteroid impact studiesspace explorationlunar geologyUNOOSAinternational cooperationspace threatsimpact eventsgeological processesastronomyspace scienceEarth threatsasteroid monitoringcollision probabilityscientific observationsplanetary sciencespace researchlunar impacts2028 asteroid observationtrajectory calculationsNASA collision risk assessment

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