Asteroid 2024 YR4: Potential Moon Collision in 2032 Raises Risks for Satellites

On June 23, 2025, researchers alerted the scientific community about the potential threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, which may collide with the Moon in 2032. This 60-meter-wide asteroid has a 4.3% chance of impacting the Moon, with the potential to release approximately 100 million kilograms (220 million pounds) of debris into space. The findings were reported by lead researcher Paul Wiegert, a Professor at the University of Western Ontario, and published in a preprint study submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters.

The implications of such a collision could be significant, akin to a large nuclear explosion, as the energy released would propel a vast amount of lunar material into Earth's vicinity, creating a dazzling meteor shower. According to simulations conducted by Wiegert and his team, if the asteroid were to strike the side of the Moon that faces Earth, there is a 50% chance that up to 10% of the debris could be captured by Earth’s gravitational pull within days following the impact.

"A centimeter-sized rock traveling at tens of thousands of meters per second is comparable to a bullet," Wiegert stated, highlighting the potential risk to satellites that will be increasingly prevalent in Earth’s orbit by 2032. He estimated that there could be more than 1,000 times the usual number of meteors threatening these satellites after such an event.

Earlier this year, fears surrounding asteroid 2024 YR4 were heightened when it was initially predicted to have a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. However, subsequent observations using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope, have ruled out a direct hit on Earth, shifting the focus to the Moon as the potential impact target.

The upcoming visibility of the asteroid in 2028 will be crucial for scientists to gather more data about its trajectory. Wiegert emphasized that should a direct hit on the Moon be deemed likely, there would be sufficient time to consider a planetary defense mission to mitigate the impact.

This asteroid, while smaller than Dimorphos—the target of NASA's successful DART mission in 2022—could still serve as an important target for future planetary defense tests if its trajectory aligns with the Moon.

In summary, while the likelihood of a collision remains low, the research underscores the need for ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects and the potential risks they pose to both our satellites and the broader Earth-Moon system. The international scientific community continues to advocate for enhanced observational capabilities to identify and mitigate potential threats from space debris, emphasizing the importance of preparedness in the face of cosmic uncertainties.