Increasing Rocket Launches Threaten Ozone Layer, New Research Reveals

As the international space industry experiences unprecedented growth, a recent study conducted by researchers from the University of Canterbury highlights the environmental consequences associated with a significant increase in rocket launches. According to the findings published on June 10, 2025, an increase to approximately 2,000 rocket launches annually—a tenfold rise from current levels—could impede the ongoing recovery of the ozone layer, a critical shield against harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation. This research emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable practices within the burgeoning space sector to mitigate damage to the atmosphere.

The study, led by Dr. Laura Revell, Associate Professor in Atmospheric Chemistry, and Dr. Michele Bannister, Senior Lecturer in Astronomy, presents a stark warning. "While the ozone layer is slowly healing, projections suggest that a tenfold increase in launches would begin to reverse this progress by thinning the layer by up to 3%, particularly over Antarctica," stated Dr. Revell, a member of the International Ozone Commission and the UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel.

Historically, the ozone layer has been under threat from chlorofluorocarbons and other harmful chemicals, leading to international agreements such as the Montreal Protocol aimed at its recovery. The current research underscores that while the number of global rocket launches has increased—from 102 in 2019 to 258 in 2024—further expansion could significantly hinder ozone recovery efforts. The research team utilized a database of ozone-depleting chemicals emitted by existing launch vehicles, integrating this data into atmospheric models to simulate potential outcomes under various launch rate scenarios.

The findings indicate that while current launch rates do not cause significant ozone depletion, future projections raise concerns. The projected threefold increase in U.S.-based launches by 2028, driven by the expansion of satellite constellations, is particularly alarming. These constellations necessitate numerous launches to maintain operational satellites, which could further exacerbate ozone layer thinning.

Experts emphasize that not all rocket fuels have the same impact on the atmosphere. Dr. Bannister noted, "Certain propellants that release chlorine-containing chemicals or black carbon particulates possess a higher potential for ozone depletion. Addressing our fuel choices is vital if we want to support the recovery of the ozone layer as our launch activities increase."

While the study projects that ozone losses would not result in catastrophic consequences for human health or ecosystems, the implications for global environmental recovery efforts are significant. As the ozone layer remains approximately 2% lower than its pre-depletion levels, researchers warn that future losses are not inevitable. Collaborative efforts between the space industry, regulatory bodies, and scientists can mitigate these effects, but proactive measures must be implemented immediately to avoid irreversible damage.

The research advocates for a cautious approach to rocket launches, urging the adoption of cleaner fuels and the minimization of emissions. The findings serve as a call to action for the aerospace sector to embrace sustainability in its rapid growth trajectory, ensuring that the benefits of space exploration do not come at the cost of environmental health. As the demand for satellite launches continues to rise, the need for a concerted effort to balance industrial growth with ecological responsibility has never been more pressing.