Supernovae: Potential Catalysts for Abrupt Climate Changes

In a groundbreaking study published in the *Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society* on June 11, 2025, Robert Brakenridge, a senior research associate at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at the University of Colorado Boulder, posits that supernovae may have significantly influenced Earth's climate in the past and could do so again. Brakenridge's research presents new models demonstrating how high-energy particles emitted from a supernova can interact with Earth's atmosphere, potentially leading to abrupt climate shifts such as global cooling and increased levels of ultraviolet radiation.

Historically, supernovae—explosive deaths of massive stars—have released vast amounts of energy, sending high-energy particles through space for thousands of light-years. Previous studies have suggested a possible connection between supernovae and climate shifts, but Brakenridge’s work bridges the gap between theoretical physics and empirical observations. “We have abrupt environmental changes in Earth’s history. That’s solid; we see these changes. So, what caused them?” Brakenridge remarked, emphasizing the importance of understanding these cosmic events.

Brakenridge's model indicates that radiation from a nearby supernova could thin the ozone layer, which protects Earth from harmful solar radiation, while also degrading atmospheric methane—a potent greenhouse gas. Such interactions could lead to a reduction in the greenhouse effect and an increase in ultraviolet radiation reaching the planet's surface, potentially resulting in ecological disruptions, including selective animal extinctions and heightened wildfire occurrences.

To support his hypothesis, Brakenridge analyzed tree ring data spanning 15,000 years, identifying 11 spikes in radioactive carbon that correlate with known supernova events. “The events that we know of, here on Earth, are at the right time and the right intensity,” he stated. This correlation suggests that past supernovae may have had an environmental impact, although solar flares remain a competing explanation for these climate shifts.

Experts in the field are optimistic about the implications of Brakenridge’s findings. Dr. Sarah Johnson, an astrophysicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, noted, “Understanding the potential consequences of supernovae on Earth’s climate is crucial for future preparedness. As we enhance our observation capabilities, we may be able to predict and mitigate potential risks.”

The study is part of a broader investigation into cosmic phenomena and their terrestrial effects. Brakenridge hopes that continued research will refine models of environmental impacts linked to supernovae, correlating them with geological records such as ice cores and marine sediments. This could enhance humanity's ability to prepare for abrupt climate shifts triggered by cosmic events.

Currently, astronomers are closely monitoring Betelgeuse, a red supergiant star that is expected to explode as a supernova in the next 100,000 years. “As we learn more about our nearby neighboring stars, the capability for prediction is actually there,” Brakenridge concluded, underscoring the need for further modeling and observation. As scientific methods advance, the link between supernovae and climate change may offer valuable insights into Earth's climatic past and future.