Urgent Call to Action: One Decade to Prevent Social Collapse

A new study led by Per Espen Stoknes from the BI Norwegian Business School emphasizes that humanity has roughly one decade to avert a potential social and environmental collapse by the year 2100. This alarming projection stems from research published in the journal Global Sustainability, which highlights the risks of continuing with the current economic model, characterized by growing inequality and environmental degradation, particularly if global temperatures exceed 2°C.

The study, produced by the Earth4All initiative, presents a computer simulation model termed Earth4All-global, which evaluates the interplay of economic, social, and environmental factors over the next 75 years. The findings indicate that despite potential increases in gross domestic product (GDP), quality of life could substantially decline, leading to heightened social tensions and a deteriorating environment.

Stoknes and his team identified five critical policy changes, dubbed “extraordinary turnarounds,” that could redirect this trajectory: poverty reduction, addressing inequality, empowering women, reforming food systems, and transitioning to clean energy. Their research suggests that immediate and comprehensive implementation of these changes is crucial to ensure a sustainable future.

The study's well-being index incorporates various metrics, including disposable income, government spending on public services, and perceived life improvements. According to Dr. Sarah E. Cornell of Uppsala University, co-author of the study, “The scenarios suggest that today’s dominant economic policies are likely to lead to rising social tensions, worsening environmental pressures, and declining well-being.” This perspective underscores the limitations of GDP as a measure of success, advocating instead for a more nuanced understanding of societal prosperity.

The researchers ran two primary scenarios to illustrate potential futures. The first, “Too Little, Too Late,” assumes a continuation of current policies, leading to increased inequality and environmental pressures, which could trigger a cycle of social unrest and governmental inaction. In contrast, the “Giant Leap” scenario envisions a proactive approach where significant policy changes are enacted, allowing for economic growth alongside environmental protection and improved well-being.

Key policy strategies include: 1. **Poverty Turnaround:** Substantial investments in developing nations to alleviate extreme poverty through initiatives such as debt cancellation and infrastructure enhancements. 2. **Inequality Turnaround:** Implementation of higher taxes on affluent individuals and corporations, paired with universal basic income programs and enhanced worker rights. 3. **Empowerment Turnaround:** Focused investments in women’s health, education, and economic opportunities to achieve gender equality. 4. **Food Turnaround:** Adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, reduction of food waste, and a shift towards plant-based diets. 5. **Energy Turnaround:** Significant advancements in renewable energy deployment, energy efficiency, and carbon capture technologies.

Notably, the study emphasizes the importance of social dynamics in achieving climate goals, with co-author Nathalie Spittler from BOKU University stating, “Achieving climate goals is not just a question of technological and economic developments.” Rising social tensions can hinder governmental effectiveness, making it increasingly difficult to implement long-term solutions.

The research highlights a critical timeframe for these transformations, indicating that the coming decade is pivotal for initiating these policy changes before the societal and environmental consequences become unmanageable.

In conclusion, the Earth4All initiative presents a stark choice to policymakers and global leaders: to embrace a controlled transformation towards sustainability or risk descending into chaotic collapse. The urgency of these findings calls for immediate action and collaborative efforts across nations to secure a viable future for humanity and the planet.

**References:** - Stoknes, P. E., Cornell, S. E., Spittler, N., et al. (2025). "The Earth4All scenarios: human wellbeing on a finite planet towards 2100." *Global Sustainability*, 8, e22. - Uppsala University. (2023). Internal report on social dynamics and environmental policies. - World Bank. (2022). Global poverty report, retrieved from [WorldBank.org](https://www.worldbank.org). - United Nations. (2023). Sustainable Development Goals report, retrieved from [UN.org](https://www.un.org). - OECD. (2022). Economic outlook and growth projections, retrieved from [OECD.org](https://www.oecd.org).