Emerging Nuclear Arms Race Highlighted in SIPRI Yearbook 2025 Analysis

(Stockholm, 16 June 2025) The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released its annual SIPRI Yearbook, revealing alarming trends in global nuclear arsenals and the weakening of arms control regimes. The 2025 report highlights the emergence of a new nuclear arms race as nine nuclear-armed states continue to modernize and expand their nuclear capabilities despite the declining efficacy of existing arms control agreements.

The report notes that the total global inventory of nuclear warheads is estimated to be around 12,241 as of January 2025, with the United States and Russia alone possessing approximately 90% of these. Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow at SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, emphasized that the trend of nuclear disarmament seen post-Cold War is rapidly reversing. "The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world is coming to an end," Kristensen stated, underscoring the growing nuclear arsenals and intensified nuclear rhetoric among nations.

In the wake of deteriorating geopolitical relations, SIPRI's Director, Dan Smith, expressed concern that the crisis in bilateral nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia is worsening. The New START treaty, which currently limits the strategic nuclear forces of both countries, is set to expire in February 2026, with little sign of renewal or negotiation in sight. Without new agreements, analysts predict an increase in deployed warheads on strategic missiles.

China is identified as a significant player in this evolving landscape, with an estimated 600 nuclear warheads and an annual increase of approximately 100 warheads since 2023. By the end of 2024, China had nearly completed around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos, positioning itself to potentially match or exceed the arsenals of the U.S. and Russia by the end of the decade. However, even at projected levels, China's arsenal would still represent only about one-third of its U.S. and Russian counterparts.

The report also highlights nuclear modernization efforts from other nuclear states, including the United Kingdom, France, India, and Pakistan, each of which is reportedly expanding or enhancing its nuclear capabilities. Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher at SIPRI, cautioned that the increasing reliance on nuclear weapons raises the stakes for international conflict, particularly in regions with existing tensions, such as between India and Pakistan.

The report warns that advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and missile defense systems are redefining the nuclear landscape, creating new risks of miscommunication and escalation during crises. Smith noted that these developments could make traditional arms control frameworks obsolete, requiring a reevaluation of how states approach nuclear security and deterrence.

In conclusion, the SIPRI Yearbook 2025 reveals a precarious state of global security, exacerbated by ongoing conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and the rise of new nuclear capabilities. The need for renewed dialogue and innovative arms control measures has never been more critical as the world faces the prospect of a new and potentially more dangerous arms race.

The SIPRI Yearbook is published by Oxford University Press, providing vital insights into global security issues and the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security. For detailed data and analysis, visit www.sipriyearbook.org.