Europe's Strategic Engagement with Southeast Asia Amid Global Rivalries

In a bid to strengthen its influence in Southeast Asia, Europe has intensified its diplomatic efforts to forge deeper ties with the region, which has increasingly found itself at the crossroads of U.S. and Chinese interests. This strategic pivot comes as European leaders recognize the significant economic potential of Southeast Asia, particularly in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions involving China and the United States.

As Southeast Asia grapples with the implications of China's assertive maneuvers in the South China Sea and the U.S.'s tariff strategies, European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have called for a renewed partnership. At the recent 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Macron emphasized the importance of establishing a 'new special relationship' between Europe and Southeast Asia, highlighting shared challenges such as the erosion of long-standing alliances and the need for cooperative approaches to security and economic development.

The growing interest from Europe stems in part from the region's geopolitical significance, as it serves as a vital link for global trade and commerce. Notably, Southeast Asia has emerged as a key player in global supply chains, providing essential raw materials that are crucial for Europe’s green and digital transitions. According to Bob Herrera-Lim, Managing Director at Teneo, Southeast Asia's collaboration could present Europe with an opportunity to diversify its supply chains and reduce economic reliance on traditional partners like the U.S. and China.

Despite these optimistic overtures, experts caution that Europe's efforts may face significant hurdles. The EU has historically lagged in establishing robust trade ties with Southeast Asia, trailing behind China, which has maintained its status as the region's largest trading partner since 2009, with trade volumes reaching approximately $982.3 billion in 2024. In contrast, U.S. trade with Southeast Asia stood at an estimated $476.8 billion, while the EU's trade was only about $299.7 billion, as reported by the European Commission.

Céline Pajon, head of the Japan and Indo-Pacific Research Center at Ifri, notes that while Europe can offer Southeast Asia a viable alternative to the hegemonic pressures posed by China and the U.S., the region's economic relationships are primarily driven by trade. She states, "Form follows function in Southeast Asia; relationships are built on economic ties more than anything else."

The challenges facing European engagement are compounded by stalled negotiations for bilateral trade agreements and a lack of significant investment in the region. Pajon emphasizes that without substantial reforms or commitments to enhance trade, Europe is unlikely to gain ground against established partners.

Despite these challenges, other analysts point out that Europe can still play a crucial role in providing reliable partnerships that focus on non-zero-sum cooperation. Lizza Bomassi, a Research Analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), posits that Europe's value proposition lies in its capacity to offer sustainable partnerships in energy security, green infrastructure, and digital governance, areas where Southeast Asian nations are eager to diversify.

Moreover, the presence of European nations in Southeast Asia could serve as a counterbalance to China's territorial ambitions. Bomassi further articulates that the EU-ASEAN partnership is not solely about military deterrence but acts as a significant diplomatic tool, raising the stakes for China in its territorial disputes and ultimately enhancing the resilience of Southeast Asian nations against coercive tactics.

As Europe seeks to solidify its presence in Southeast Asia, the path ahead will require a concerted effort to overcome historical trade barriers and establish a more substantial economic footprint in the region. The future implications of this engagement will likely play a critical role in shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific, influencing trade dynamics and security alignments for years to come.