House Set to Vote on Trump's Major Tax and Spending Bill Amid GOP Tensions

On July 2, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives is poised to vote on a significant tax-and-spending bill championed by former President Donald Trump, following its narrow passage through the Senate. The bill, described by Trump as 'big and beautiful,' faces considerable challenges as House Speaker Mike Johnson attempts to navigate a faction of dissenting Republicans over amendments made by the Senate.

The Senate passed the legislation in a historic all-night session, with Vice President JD Vance casting the decisive tie-breaking vote. The current legislative landscape is fraught with uncertainty, as Speaker Johnson has publicly stated that the Senate has 'gone a little further than many of us would have preferred,' particularly regarding changes to the Medicaid program, which provides healthcare to low-income and disabled Americans.

Speaker Johnson expressed urgency in reconciling the differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill, aiming to meet Trump’s deadline for a Fourth of July signing. The House Rules Committee has already advanced the measure to the floor, setting the stage for a vote that could occur on Wednesday or, if attendance issues arise due to weather delays, potentially on Thursday at the latest.

The House initially approved a draft of the bill back in May by a narrow margin, overcoming unified opposition from Democrats. However, internal strife is evident as fiscal conservatives have expressed outrage over new cost estimates suggesting that the Senate's version could exacerbate the federal deficit even further than the original House proposal. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill, in its current form, would increase the budget deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion through 2034.

The legislation aims to extend tax cuts from Trump’s first term and includes new provisions that would cut taxes on tips, overtime, and certain car loan interest payments. Furthermore, it allocates significant funds toward Trump's immigration policies, including $45 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention facilities and $14 billion for deportation operations, alongside plans to hire 10,000 new agents by 2029. Additionally, the bill sets aside over $50 billion for border fortifications, likely including a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

In response to fiscal conservatives' demands for spending cuts, the legislation imposes new work requirements on Medicaid enrollees and limits the provider tax states utilize to fund their programs, potentially leading to reduced services. Moreover, the bill would also sunset some incentives for green energy technologies established under President Joe Biden’s administration.

As the House prepares for this critical vote, the outcome remains uncertain. Johnson's wafer-thin GOP majority can afford to lose no more than three votes, with factions of fiscal hardliners, moderates, and Republicans from Democratic-led states poised to challenge the bill. The implications of this legislation could significantly influence the federal budget and health care access for millions of Americans, as well as shape the political landscape leading into the next election cycle.