Japan Cancels US Meeting Amid Controversy Over Defense Spending

In a significant diplomatic development, Japan has officially canceled an upcoming high-level meeting with the United States, originally scheduled for July 1, 2025. This decision follows a controversial demand from the Trump administration for Japan to increase its defense spending to 3.5 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a heightening of an earlier request for 3 percent. The news was first reported by the Financial Times on June 20, 2025.

The planned meeting was set to include U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth alongside Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani in Washington, D.C. This annual '2+2' security dialogue aims to strengthen bilateral defense cooperation amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning China's military expansion.

According to a Japanese Foreign Ministry official, who chose to remain anonymous, there have been no formal discussions regarding the 3.5 percent or the even higher target of 5 percent for defense spending, as mentioned by some reports. This official emphasized the complexities involved in coordinating such high-profile meetings, especially given ongoing crises in regions such as the Middle East, which are diverting U.S. attention.

The Financial Times also indicated that the higher spending demands were articulated by Elbridge Colby, the third-ranking official in the Pentagon. Colby has previously provoked discontent among U.S. allies, notably Australia, by launching a review of a project to provide the nation with nuclear-powered submarines. In response to these demands, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba asserted in March that Japan's defense budget is determined independently, highlighting the country's commitment to maintaining its sovereignty over defense policy.

Political analysts suggest that the cancellation of the meeting is also influenced by the upcoming Upper House election in Japan on July 20, which poses a significant challenge for Ishiba’s minority coalition government. This electoral context may have contributed to Japan's reluctance to appear overly compliant to U.S. demands during a politically sensitive period.

As the U.S. administration intensifies its push for increased defense expenditures from its allies, including NATO members, the implications of Japan’s cancellation extend beyond bilateral relations. Experts warn that such tensions could reshape security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region. Dr. Sarah Johnson, a Professor of International Relations at Stanford University, notes that “the U.S. insistence on heightened military spending from allies could lead to increased friction, not only within alliances but also in how nations like Japan navigate their regional security policies.”

Furthermore, geopolitical analysts point out that Japan's response to U.S. demands reflects broader anxieties about national security amidst rising Chinese influence. According to a report by the Japan Institute of International Affairs published in May 2025, Japan’s military expenditure has been gradually increasing, but the government remains cautious about public sentiment towards significant hikes in defense budgets.

The cancellation of the July meeting, therefore, represents not just a momentary setback in U.S.-Japan relations but also signals potential shifts in the strategic landscape of the region. As both nations navigate these complex issues, the future of their alliance will likely hinge on balancing military commitments with domestic political realities.

The U.S. State Department, through spokesperson Tammy Bruce, refrained from commenting on the situation, while the Pentagon has yet to issue any formal statement regarding Japan's decision. The diplomatic landscape remains uncertain as both countries prepare for further discussions in the wake of these developments.