Netanyahu Faces Political Turmoil as Shas Party Exits Coalition

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced a significant political setback late on July 17, 2025, when the Shas party, a key partner in his governing coalition, announced its departure. This move leaves Netanyahu's coalition with only 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, raising the specter of a minority government amid ongoing national challenges, including the war in Gaza and ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire.

The Shas party, known for its ultra-Orthodox base, cited disagreements over a proposed law that would grant broad military draft exemptions to its constituents as the catalyst for its exit. Michael Malkieli, a cabinet minister from Shas, stated, "In this current situation, it’s impossible to sit in the government and to be a partner in it." This departure marks the second time within a week that an ultra-Orthodox party has withdrawn from Netanyahu's coalition, with the United Torah Judaism party having announced its exit earlier due to similar concerns surrounding military draft exemptions.

The political landscape in Israel is particularly precarious as the country grapples with the ramifications of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Negotiations for a potential US-backed ceasefire are underway, yet Netanyahu is under mounting pressure from his coalition allies, especially from the far-right factions that oppose any cessation of military action against Hamas. These factions have threatened to withdraw their support if the government moves forward with a ceasefire, complicating Netanyahu's position further.

Despite losing two critical coalition partners, Netanyahu's government is not immediately at risk of collapse. After the Shas resignations are formalized, there will be a brief 48-hour window during which Netanyahu can attempt to stabilize his government. The current political recess before the summer break may provide Netanyahu with an opportunity to negotiate compromises on the contentious draft law, which has divided opinions within Israeli society.

Historically, the issue of military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men has been contentious. Mandatory military service is a requirement for most Jewish Israelis, and the exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox individuals have long been a source of tension. These exemptions, initially instituted to preserve religious traditions, have expanded over the years, leading to resentment among the wider Israeli populace, who often view them as unfair.

As the Knesset reconvenes in the coming months, the potential for early elections looms, especially if Netanyahu cannot shore up his coalition. Current elections are scheduled for October 2026, but the fracturing of his coalition could expedite this timeline. The ongoing trial against Netanyahu for alleged corruption further complicates his situation, as critics argue that he is motivated to remain in power to influence proceedings against him.

In conclusion, the exit of Shas from Netanyahu's coalition not only destabilizes his government but also underscores the deep-seated divisions within Israeli society regarding military service and the role of ultra-Orthodox communities. As negotiations for a ceasefire continue and political uncertainty mounts, the future of Netanyahu’s administration remains precarious, and the potential for early elections could reshape the political landscape in Israel significantly.