Strait of Hormuz: Iran's Potential to Disrupt Critical Oil Passage

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, remains at the center of geopolitical tensions following recent military actions involving the United States and Iran. On June 23, 2025, the United States bombed three of Iran's key nuclear facilities, escalating hostilities in the region. In response, Tehran has signaled its willingness to consider all options, including the potential obstruction of this crucial waterway, which facilitates approximately 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade.

The strait, approximately 161 kilometers long and 33.8 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, serves as a critical conduit for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar. In 2024, around 16.5 million barrels of crude and condensate passed through the strait daily, with more than one-fifth of the global LNG supply also traversing this route, according to Bloomberg data (2024). The implications of any disruption could lead to skyrocketing oil prices and significant destabilization of the global economy.

Historically, Iran has threatened to block the strait during periods of heightened tensions, leveraging its strategic position to exert pressure on adversaries. Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces, stated in early June 2025 that while Iran has options to disrupt traffic through the strait, it has thus far chosen restraint. However, the recent military actions by the U.S. have raised concerns about a shift in this approach.

In the past, Iran has resorted to harassment tactics, including the seizure of vessels linked to adversarial nations. For instance, in April 2023, the IRGC seized a U.S.-bound tanker, claiming it had struck another vessel, a move analysts interpreted as retaliation for prior sanctions-related actions by the U.S. In May 2022, Iran detained two Greek tankers, purportedly in response to the confiscation of Iranian oil by U.S. and Greek authorities. Such actions illustrate Iran's willingness to use maritime leverage to bolster its geopolitical stance.

Should Iran attempt to obstruct the strait, it would likely face a swift and robust response from the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which patrols the region alongside allied naval forces. The U.S. has a history of protecting shipping routes in the Gulf, notably during the Tanker War in the 1980s, when it escorted vessels through the strait in the face of Iranian aggression. More recently, the U.S. initiated Operation Sentinel in 2019 to safeguard maritime traffic amid increasing threats from Iranian forces.

While Iran could theoretically block the strait through direct military action, experts indicate that it could also achieve significant disruption by employing asymmetric warfare tactics, such as deploying fast patrol boats, drones, or missiles against commercial ships. Such measures could create a high-risk environment, deterring vessels from transiting the strait.

The consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz would be severe not only for global oil markets but also for Iran itself, as it relies heavily on this passage for its oil exports. China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, would also be affected, potentially straining diplomatic relations.

In conclusion, while Iran possesses the capability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, doing so would likely precipitate significant economic consequences for both Iran and the global community. The current geopolitical landscape necessitates close monitoring of developments in this critical region, as the ramifications of any military escalation could be profound and far-reaching.

As tensions in the Middle East continue to evolve, the international community remains watchful, with diplomatic efforts potentially playing a crucial role in mitigating conflicts surrounding this strategic maritime passage.