Trump's Tariff Threats to Brazil: A Political Miscalculation for Bolsonaro

In a politically charged move, U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods has sparked widespread protests and significant political backlash in Brazil. This economic ultimatum, aimed at supporting former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro amid allegations of a coup attempt, has inadvertently bolstered the standing of current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and intensified public dissent against the Bolsonaro family.

The tariffs were announced via a letter from Trump to Lula on July 9, 2025, in which he demanded that charges against Bolsonaro be dropped. Trump characterized the legal challenges faced by Bolsonaro, who is accused of orchestrating a failed coup following his electoral defeat in 2022, as a “Witch Hunt.” Bolsonaro, facing a potential 43-year prison sentence, has been a significant ally of Trump in South America, often echoing the U.S. President’s far-right rhetoric.

As protests erupted in cities like São Paulo, demonstrators condemned both Trump and Bolsonaro. Silvana Marques, a teacher participating in a protest at the São Paulo Museum of Art, expressed her outrage, stating, "We cannot allow this to happen," referring to the perceived betrayal of Brazilian interests by the Bolsonaro family. Protesters burned effigies of Trump and displayed banners rejecting his tariffs while emphasizing their national pride.

Political analysts believe Trump’s intervention has backfired spectacularly. Eliane Cantanhêde, a columnist for the Estado de São Paulo, noted that Trump’s motives might include bolstering far-right factions in South America and counteracting growing Chinese influence following the recent BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro. Cantanhêde suggested that this intervention allowed Lula to position himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty, providing him with a significant public relations boost.

Nicolás Saldías, a Latin America analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, agreed, asserting that Trump's actions would likely unify Brazilian citizens around Lula, enhancing his image as a nationalist leader. “For Lula, this is going to be helpful,” he stated, anticipating a surge in Lula’s approval ratings as he embraces a progressive nationalism narrative, especially in an economic context that favors Brazilian producers.

The tariffs have ignited a renewed sense of nationalism among Brazilians, with Lula leveraging this sentiment to regain political ground. Reports indicate that Lula’s ratings have indeed seen an uptick since Trump’s announcement, as citizens rally around the idea of protecting their economy from foreign influence. Lula has even been seen wearing a blue cap with the slogan “Brazil belongs to the Brazilians,” symbolizing his commitment to national interests in the face of external pressures.

Conversely, Bolsonaro's response to the tariffs has included claims that he opposes them, suggesting that they are a result of Lula’s provocations. However, insiders close to the Bolsonaro family have indicated that they recognize the detrimental impact of Trump's tariffs on their political future. One source remarked, “The thrill of catching Trump’s attention soon curdled as the Bolsonaros realized the crushing weight of the tariffs tied to their cause.”

The implications of this political miscalculation are significant, not only for Bolsonaro and his family but also for the broader geopolitical landscape in South America. As Brazil grapples with internal divisions and economic challenges, the potential for increased cooperation with China, Brazil’s largest trading partner, could reshape trade dynamics in the region. With Trump’s tariffs igniting public resistance against Bolsonaro, the former president’s political future hangs precariously in the balance.

In conclusion, Trump’s intervention has not only failed to protect Bolsonaro but has also inadvertently empowered Lula, positioning him as a defender of Brazilian nationalism against perceived foreign aggression. As Brazil approaches critical elections, the political landscape remains volatile, with the potential for lasting changes in both domestic politics and international relations. The fallout from this tariff decision may well redefine Brazil’s political alliances and economic strategies in the years to come.