US Defense Secretary Sounds Alarm on "Imminent" China Threat, Calls for Dramatic Increase in Asian Defense Spending

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered one of the strongest warnings yet about China's military threat during his landmark address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, marking a significant escalation in the Trump administration's rhetoric toward Beijing. Speaking at Asia's premier security forum on May 31, 2025, Hegseth declared the threat from China as "real and potentially imminent," while urging Asian allies to dramatically increase their defense spending to counter what he described as Beijing's aggressive regional ambitions.

Hegseth's assessment represents a major departure from previous U.S. government positions, where officials had consistently argued that conflict with China "is neither imminent nor inevitable." The defense secretary's stark warning underscored the Trump administration's more confrontational approach to Beijing, with Hegseth stating there was "no reason to sugar coat it" regarding China's military preparations. He specifically highlighted Beijing's efforts to build capacity for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027, while reaffirming President Trump's pledge that China would not invade Taiwan "on his watch."

The defense secretary's call for increased military spending drew particular attention as he urged Asian allies to emulate European NATO members who are pledging to spend 5% of their gross domestic product on defense. "It's hard to believe, a little bit, after some trips to Europe that I'm saying this, but thanks to President Trump, Asian allies should look to countries in Europe as a new found example," Hegseth said. "NATO members are pledging to spend 5% of their GDP on defence, even Germany. So it doesn't make sense for countries in Europe to do that while key allies in Asia spend less on defence in the face of an even more formidable threat, not to mention North Korea."

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Asian nations spent an average of 1.5% of GDP on defense in 2024, a figure that has remained relatively constant over the last decade, highlighting the substantial gap between current spending levels and Hegseth's ambitious targets. The defense secretary's push for increased burden-sharing reflects the Trump administration's broader "America First" approach, which emphasizes that allies must take greater responsibility for their own security.

China's notable absence from the dialogue added symbolic weight to Hegseth's address. For the first time since 2019, China's Defense Minister Dong Jun skipped the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, with Beijing sending only lower-ranking representatives instead. Hegseth pointedly referenced this absence, telling the assembled defense leaders, "We are here this morning, and somebody else isn't".

The response from regional allies was notably mixed. U.S. Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth, who co-led a bipartisan delegation to the dialogue, described Hegseth's language toward allies as "patronizing" of friends in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, Australia's Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles welcomed Hegseth's emphasis on regional security, noting that Australia is already engaged in "the biggest peacetime increase in our defense spending since the end of the Second World War".

Hegseth's warning about China extended beyond Taiwan to broader regional concerns. He accused Beijing of wanting to "dominate and control" many parts of the region through its massive military buildup and growing willingness to use military force to achieve its goals, including via gray zone tactics and hybrid warfare. The defense secretary specifically cited China's actions in the South China Sea, where it has rammed Philippine coast guard and fishing vessels, and its increasingly complex military drills around Taiwan.

Beijing responded sharply to Hegseth's remarks. China's foreign ministry protested against what it called "vilifying" remarks, describing Hegseth's comments as "deplorable" and accusing him of deliberately ignoring calls for peace from regional nations while promoting a "Cold War mentality for bloc confrontation". Chinese officials argued that no country deserved to be called a hegemonic power other than the United States itself.

The timing of Hegseth's address was particularly significant as it represented his first major policy speech on Asia since taking office in January 2025. The secretary is the most senior member of the U.S. government to address Indo-Pacific policy this year, making his remarks a crucial indicator of the Trump administration's regional strategy. His emphasis that the Indo-Pacific remains a "priority theater" for Washington strategists sought to reassure allies of continued American engagement despite domestic political pressures.

Several European leaders at the dialogue offered contrasting visions for international cooperation. French President Emmanuel Macron, who delivered the keynote address, warned against forcing countries to choose sides between superpowers, extending his vision for "strategic autonomy" to form "new alliances" with Asia. EU diplomat Kaja Kallas positioned the European bloc as a "predictable and reliable partner" and potential alternative to what she characterized as a more erratic, protectionist America.

Defense analysts noted the broader implications of Hegseth's approach. Dylan Loh, assistant professor at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, observed that "short of a very few countries, not many in this part of the world see China as an imminent threat and would up their [defence] spending". This assessment highlights the challenge facing the Trump administration in building regional consensus around its more aggressive China policy.

The defense secretary's visit to Singapore also included meetings with key regional partners. In a private meeting with Australia's Defense Minister Richard Marles, Hegseth specifically conveyed that Australia should increase its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP "as soon as possible", though Marles later downplayed the significance of specific numbers in public comments.

As tensions continue to escalate in the region, Hegseth's Shangri-La address may mark a turning point in U.S.-China relations and alliance dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. His combination of stark warnings about Chinese military capabilities and demands for increased allied burden-sharing reflects the Trump administration's belief that deterring China will require not just American commitment but substantially greater contributions from regional partners. Whether Asian allies will embrace this more demanding approach remains an open question as the region navigates increasingly complex security challenges.