Early Monsoon Rains Forecasted to Impact All Provinces of Pakistan

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has announced that early monsoon rains are expected to commence across the country from June 25, 2025, a week earlier than the usual onset in July. This forecast encompasses all four provinces, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and is anticipated to bring significant rainfall, thereby raising concerns regarding flash floods and urban flooding.

Chief Meteorologist Zaheer Babar from the PMD explained that a shift in the monsoon pattern has been observed over recent years, leading to changes in rainfall timing and intensity. The PMD reported that moist air currents from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are already entering Pakistan's upper and central regions and are likely to intensify within the next few days. This influx, coupled with a strong westerly weather system expected to approach the northern areas on June 25, will contribute to heavy rainfall.

Rainfall predictions indicate that regions such as Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, and Rawalakot in Azad Jammu and Kashmir will experience moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms from June 24 to July 2. Similarly, in Gilgit-Baltistan, areas including Skardu and Hunza are forecasted to see rainfall from June 26 to 29. In Punjab, cities such as Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Faisalabad can expect rainfall from June 25 to July 1, while southern Punjab cities like Bahawalpur and Multan will likely see rain from June 26 to 28.

The PMD has issued warnings about the potential for flash flooding in local streams and nullahs, particularly in hilly areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Murree, as well as urban flooding in low-lying areas of major cities like Islamabad and Lahore. The Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has proactively advised local administrations to prepare for the impending rainfall, urging citizens to avoid unnecessary travel and seek shelter during storms.

Historically, the monsoon season plays a crucial role in replenishing water supplies in Pakistan, which faces recurring drought conditions. However, the PMD's advisory highlights the dual nature of this season: while it is vital for agriculture, it also poses significant risks of natural disasters. The extensive rainfall expected this year follows a pattern observed in 2024 when similar weather conditions led to widespread flooding and infrastructure damage.

Experts emphasize the need for robust disaster preparedness protocols. Dr. Muhammad Ali, a climatologist at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, noted, "The unpredictability of monsoon rains due to climate change necessitates a thorough risk assessment and community preparedness to mitigate the impacts of potential flooding."

As the forecasts indicate a significant weather shift, local authorities are on high alert. The PMD has encouraged travelers and tourists to stay informed about weather updates and avoid traveling to high-risk areas during the monsoon season. The implications of this early onset of the monsoon season will likely affect agriculture, water management, and urban planning as Pakistan braces for what could be a challenging monsoon period ahead.