Assessing Iran's Nuclear Capabilities: Insights from Military Experts

In recent weeks, discussions surrounding Iran's nuclear weapons program have intensified, particularly following reports that the nation has achieved 60% uranium enrichment, a significant step toward weapons-grade material. Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of the UK NATO Nuclear Defence Forces, explores the current state of Iran's nuclear ambitions and the feasibility of their capability to develop nuclear weapons.

According to Colonel de Bretton-Gordon, as stated in his op-ed published on June 23, 2025, the core requirement for a nuclear weapon is uranium enriched to between 90% and 95%, a threshold that Iran has not yet reached. He emphasizes that while Iran may have retained some of its 60% enriched uranium, the infrastructure necessary for weaponization—such as centrifuges, skilled nuclear scientists, and delivery systems—has been severely compromised due to international military actions. He notes, "Even the most optimistic Iranian supporters should concede this is now highly unlikely for a very long time."

The Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly at locations like Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, have been under scrutiny following military interventions from the United States and Israel, which have targeted the country’s nuclear capabilities. Colonel de Bretton-Gordon cites the destruction of critical infrastructure and personnel as significant barriers to Iran’s nuclear aspirations.

The prospect of Iran attempting to create an improvised nuclear device using its existing uranium reserves, known as a 'gun gadget device,' is also considered. However, this method has historically proven ineffective, as shown by failed attempts by groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, which alerted intelligence agencies without achieving any successful outcome. Furthermore, de Bretton-Gordon mentions the potential for Iran to attempt to construct a 'dirty bomb' using remaining fissile materials. However, he argues that such devices would likely not yield the desired catastrophic effects, as evidenced by the lack of successful deployments in the past.

The implications of a nuclear-capable Iran extend beyond its borders. Military experts and analysts agree that the existence of nuclear weapons in Iran would significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, threatening stability and escalating tensions with neighboring countries. Dr. Sarah Johnson, a Professor of International Relations at Harvard University, asserts that “a nuclear-capable Iran would embolden its regional proxies and could lead to an arms race in an already volatile region,” highlighting the broader ramifications of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

As the situation develops, the international community remains vigilant. The Biden administration has signaled its willingness to engage in renewed negotiations with Tehran, hoping to prevent further escalation. Colonel de Bretton-Gordon suggests that President Trump's previous military actions might have inadvertently provided leverage for renewed diplomatic discussions, potentially pushing Iran towards the negotiation table.

In conclusion, while the current state of Iran’s nuclear program presents significant challenges and barriers to weaponization, the geopolitical consequences of its nuclear ambitions warrant continued scrutiny. As experts weigh in on the likelihood of Iran developing nuclear weapons, the path forward remains fraught with complications, requiring careful diplomatic engagement and monitoring to ensure regional security.