James Webb Telescope Enhances Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 on Moon

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has recently observed the asteroid 2024 YR4, revealing an increased probability of it impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032. This probability has risen to 4.3%, according to new data collected during observations in May 2025, up from a previously reported 3.8% following initial images taken in March 2025.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 174 and 220 feet (53 to 67 meters) in diameter, is classified as a potentially hazardous object due to its orbit intersecting that of Earth. In a statement released by NASA, officials noted that while the Earth faces no immediate threat from the asteroid, the Moon may be at increased risk.

The observations conducted by JWST utilized its Near-Infrared Camera, allowing for precise calculations of the asteroid's trajectory. According to Dr. Mark V. Sykes, Director of the Planetary Science Institute, "The sophisticated technology of JWST provides crucial data for understanding the paths of potentially hazardous asteroids, thereby enhancing our predictive capabilities."

The asteroid was first identified in December 2024, sparking concerns about its proximity to Earth. Initial projections indicated a potential collision course, with the likelihood of an impact peaking at 3.1% earlier this year. However, subsequent observations indicated that the risk of the asteroid impacting Earth has been effectively reduced to zero, thanks to enhanced tracking and modeling efforts.

Astrophysics experts emphasize that while a lunar impact may not pose a threat to Earth, it could provide valuable scientific insights. Professor Alan Fitzsimmons from Queen's University Belfast remarked, "A collision with the Moon would allow scientists to study the formation of a lunar crater by a known asteroid for the very first time. This could improve our understanding of both lunar geology and asteroid dynamics."

The JWST will likely continue monitoring 2024 YR4 in 2028, when the asteroid approaches Earth again. As of now, the asteroid is moving toward the outer solar system, beyond the view of Earth-based telescopes. The data gathered during this period is critical for refining future predictions and assessments of similar objects.

Historically, the Moon has been impacted by numerous asteroids, with craters serving as evidence of past collisions. The potential for an impact by 2024 YR4 is not only a concern but also an opportunity for scientific advancement. According to a report by the European Space Agency published in 2022, studying such impacts can lead to improvements in planetary defense strategies.

In conclusion, as the scientific community prepares for the potential lunar impact of asteroid 2024 YR4, it opens discussions on the significance of tracking near-Earth objects. The implications of these findings extend beyond just lunar geology; they challenge our understanding of planetary defense and highlight the need for continuous monitoring of our solar neighborhood.